Crumbs of Optimism

There’s no hiding the fact that optimism has been taking a beating this summer. Consumer confidence is in the tank, jobless benefits are on the rise, and as we’ve told you, home sales suffered a big drop in July. We’ve all heard about the potential of a double dip recession, and if you pair the words “economy” and “optimism” together on Google, you’re not going to find much to read about.
And yet, even under the most barren of landscapes, if you practice enough patience and persistence, you will find a seed or two of hope to sustain you through these troubled times.
We hear so much about people who can’t afford their mortgages or who can’t find a job or who can’t manage their debt, that we forget that the fact that the vast majority of us are still gainfully employed, well-fed and have roofs over our heads. Yes, some of our investments have taken a beating. Our IRAs and 401K plans are certainly nothing to brag about. But those are called long-term investments for a reason. They, at least, have a decent shot at long-term recovery. In the here and now, the fact remains that the great recession has been an event more witnessed than experienced by most Americans.
The vision has certainly been frightening at times, but President Franklin Roosevelt was right when he told the nation during the Great Depression that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself”. Fear is what keeps us on the sidelines, and in a nation where 70 percent of the economy comes from consumer spending, we all really need to take a collective chill pill.
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The fact is, while the U.S. economy is hardly setting anything on fire, it is still growing – up 2.4 percent in the second quarter of the year. Progress is progress, no matter how small, and two former Treasury Secretaries – Robert Rubin, who served under President Clinton , and Paul O’Neill, who was in the most recent Bush Administration – both told CNN this month that they see that slow and bumpy growth continuing.
That growth will be pushed along as consumers have more money to spend, and perhaps the record low mortgage rates can help with that. Have you seriously looked into refinancing your home? Mortgage rates are at record lows, and if you could drop yours by even just a percentage point, you could save hundreds of dollars a month – money that could be poured back into the economy. And yes, we know there are millions of you out there whose loans are now larger than the value of your homes, but for many of you, there are government-backed programs to help you get lower rates.
And here’s one more piece of good news for consumers. Gas prices are falling again. They’re down about a nickel in the past two weeks, and the Oil Price Information Service is projecting another sizable drop after Labor Day, perhaps as much as 15 cents a gallon. Those pennies quickly add up to dollars, dollars that can be spent one way or another. Whether you’re reducing your debt, or buying more products, you’ll be helping the bottom line.
And perhaps the bottom line for all of us these days is that we need to be brave, we need to spend wisely and most of all we need to be patient.