January Pending Home Sales Up in All Regions

Pending home sales rose in January, and have been above year-ago levels for the past 21 months, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. There were healthy monthly gains in all regions but the West, which, despite being constrained by limited inventory, still improved slightly.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 4.5 percent to 105.9 in January from a downwardly revised 101.3 in December and is 9.5 percent above January 2012, when it was 96.7. The data reflect contracts but not closings.

The January index is the highest reading since April 2010, when it hit 110.9, just before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. Aside from spikes induced by the tax credits, the last time there was a higher reading was in February 2007 when it reached 107.9.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said inventory is the key to this year’s housing market. “Favorable affordability conditions and job growth have unleashed a pent-up demand. Most areas are drawing down housing inventory, which has shifted the supply-demand balance to sellers in much of the country. It’s also why we’re experiencing the strongest price growth in more than seven years,” he said.

“Over the near term, rising contract activity means higher home sales, but total sales for the year are expected to rise less than in 2012, while home prices are projected to rise more strongly because of inventory shortages,” Yun said.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 8.2 percent to 84.8 in January and is 10.5 percent higher than January 2012. In the Midwest, the index increased 4.5 percent to 105.0 in January and is 17.7 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 5.9 percent to an index of 119.3 in January and are 11.3 percent higher January 2012. In the West, the index edged up 0.1 percent in January to 102.1 but is 1.5 percent below a year ago.

Yun expects approximately 5.0 million existing-home sales this year. However, price growth could exceed a 7 percent gain projected for 2013 if inventory supplies remain low. Previously, NAR had expected 5.1 million existing-home sales in 2013, while prices were forecast to rise 5.5 to 6.0 percent.

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

Also released today are annual data revisions. Each February, NAR Research incorporates a review of seasonal activity factors and fine-tunes historic data for the past three years based on the most recent findings. There are no changes to unadjusted or annual data.

60% of Single-Family Renters Plan to Buy Within 5 Years

Renters of single-family homes are twenty-five percent more likely than apartment tenants to stay in their current homes fives years or longer, according to a new survey by Opinion Research Corporation. The finding suggests that “demand for single-family homes, the fastest growing rental category, will be more stable than multi-family demand,” according to the survey findings.

Renters also say they plan to become home owners one day, particularly among single-family tenants. Sixty percent of single-family renters and 44 percent of apartment renters say they plan to become home owners within the next five years.

“The near term interest in becoming home owners among single-family tenants reflects the new roles single-family rentals are fulfilling as a stepping stone to home ownership for first-time buyers and as a sanctuary for large numbers of families displaced by foreclosures but who plan to buy again when they can afford to do so,” according to the survey results.

The survey also found that single-family renters make more money and are twice as likely to have children as apartment renters, according to the survey. The survey found that the median income of a single-family renter is $75,000 to $100,000 compared to $50,000-$75,000 for apartment dwellers. Single-family renters also tend to be older, with the majority aged 35 to 44, compared to 14 to 34 among apartment dwellers.

Source: Opinion Research Corporation

San Jose, Calif.:

Median prices have risen nearly 25 percent year-over-year, and it ranks fourth in the inventory for tightest inventory. A strong economy is giving a boost to rents and home prices. San Francisco: Inventory shortages have created a seller’s market here with list prices rising more than 20 percent in the last year.
Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz.: List prices have risen 23.59 percent year-over-year, while inventories have fallen nearly 16 percent.
Washington, D.C.: List prices have increased about 16 percent in the past year, while inventories have fallen 30.77 percent. Washington, D.C. is one of the country’s priciest markets with a median price of $429,000.
Source: “Asheville, NC Tops Best Places To Buy In 2013,” Realtor.com (Feb. 14, 2013)

Safe Tax Tactics: Avoid an IRS Audit

Following a few simple rules can reduce your risk of an audit by the IRS, and protect yourself in the event that you are audited.

As a self-employed person, you are three times more likely than an employee who receives a W-2 form to be audited by the Internal Revenue Service, according to 2005 data from the IRS.

Combine that with the fact that the number of audits of small corporations has been on the rise in the last few years, and you have the potential for a real hassle. But don’t despair; there are several things you can do to reduce your chances of being audited and to protect yourself in the event that you are.

File on time. Make sure you file both your income tax return and quarterly estimates before the deadlines. Nothing throws up a red flag and says “audit me” more than consistently filing your returns and quarterlies late. If you can’t file on time, be sure to file an extension. Remember, though, that extensions don’t eliminate interest charges.

Keep good records. One particularly vexing issue for salespeople who use their cars for business is substantiating business mileage with a properly documented mileage log. Few mileage logs are up to IRS standards. The IRS will accept either paper or computer-generated logs, but the IRS tends to view computer logs as less credible.

Double-check meal and entertainment deductions. Meal and entertainment costs are deductible up to 50 percent if they are ordinary (commonly done) and necessary to your business and are either directly related to the active conduct of your business or directly preceding or following a substantial business discussion on a subject associated with your business. Ordinary and necessary costs are those considered helpful and common practice in your industry. You can entertain business associates in nonbusiness settings such as restaurants, theaters, sporting events, and nightclubs, provided the entertainment directly precedes or follows a business discussion.

Business associates would include clients, prospective clients, suppliers, employees, partners, or advisers. You should document where the meeting was held, with whom, and the purpose of the meeting. Keep this information with the receipt.

Classify your workers properly. A top audit trigger is a business — such as a real estate brokerage — that treat workers as independent contractors. Questions are more likely to arise about the employment status of office personnel or assistants working for salespeople. If the IRS rules that these workers are employees, you could owe employment taxes, penalties, and interest. While federal tax law provides a safe harbor that classifies real estate salespeople as independent contractors, unlicensed assistants do not have such protection. One important factor in determining independent contractor status is behavioral control, or to what degree workers control how, where, and when they work. If a worker receives extensive instructions on how work is to be done, it suggests employee status. If a worker receives benefits such as paid leave, health insurance, or a retirement package, this might also indicate employee status. For further details on the distinctions between independent contractors and employees, go to www.irs.gov/business and read Publication 1779.

Review IRS audit guides. Audit technique guides were developed by the IRS to assist its agents in performing examinations. These guides contain examination techniques, industry issues, business practices, industry terminology, and other information to assist examiners in performing audits for particular industries. These guides are available to the public at the IRS Web site so you can obtain them and learn in advance what issues the IRS will examine during an audit.

Get good advice. If you’re not aware of new twists in the country’s constantly changing tax laws, you might cost yourself money. If you have a question regarding possible deductions or how to report income, ask a tax professional or call the IRS directly. The money that you spend for good advice up front can pay you back many times over into the future.

Follow these easy steps, and you’ll reduce your chances of an IRS audit. At the very least, you’ll have appropriate backup for your deductions to satisfy even the toughest auditor.

Daily Real Estate News | Friday, February 08, 2013

One in 53 mortgages were foreclosed on in 2012, according to the latest data from CoreLogic. While the number is still high, CoreLogic notes the numbers are quickly improving.

Foreclosures dropped 21 percent in December 2012 compared to December 2011. In December, 56,000 foreclosures were completed compared to 71,000 a year prior. An average of 21,000 foreclosures completed in a month is considered more of a “normal” range, according to CoreLogic.

Since September 2008, there have been about 4.1 million homes lost to foreclosure, according to CoreLogic data.

Foreclosure inventories are falling too, declining nearly 20 percent year-over-year.

"The most encouraging foreclosure trend reported here is that the inventory of foreclosed properties is almost 20 percent smaller than a year ago," says Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. "This big improvement indicates we are working toward resolving the backlog of the most distressed assets in the shadow inventory."

The following five states accounted for nearly half of all completed foreclosures over 2012:

1. California
2. Florida
3. Michigan
4. Texas
5. Georgia

The following five states, according to CoreLogic, have the highest foreclosure inventories as a percentage of all mortgaged homes right now:

1. Florida
2. New Jersey
3. New York
4. Nevada
5. Illinois

Source: “CoreLogic: 1 in 53 Mortgages Foreclosed in 2012, 767k Total,” Mortgage News Daily (Feb. 1, 2013)

Mortgage Rates Move Back Down This Week

Average mortgage rates stayed steady or inched lower this week, which “should continue to aid in the ongoing housing recovery,” Freddie Mac says in its weekly mortgage market survey.

The following are the national averages in mortgage rates for the week ending Feb. 7, according to Freddie Mac:

30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.53 percent, with an average 0.8 point, holding the same as last week. A year ago at this time, 30-year rates averaged 3.87 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.77 percent, with an average 0.7 point, dropping from last week’s 2.81 percent average. Last year at this time, 15-year rates averaged 3.16 percent.
5-year adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.63 percent, with an average 0.6 point, dropping from last week’s 2.70 percent average. Last year at this time, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.83 percent.
1-year ARMs: averaged 2.53 percent, with an average 0.4 point, dropping from last week’s 2.59 percent average. A year ago at this time, 1-year ARMs averaged 2.78 percent.
Source: Freddie Mac

Foreclosures Remain a Problem in Some States

Are Home Prices Rising Too Fast?

In a historical context, home prices typically increase about 3 to 4 percent a year.

But in the years preceding the housing crash, prices in 2002 started soaring 7 percent a year, then 8 percent in 2004, and 12 percent by 2005, CNBC.com reports.

A “new bubble” may be forming, CNBC columnist Diana Olick writes. CoreLogic’s latest housing data shows home prices rose 8 percent in December year-over-year, the largest gain in more than six years. In some places, home prices are up by double digits from a year ago, like Phoenix where prices are up 26 percent year-over-year.

Inventories of for-sale homes are very tight and many are attributing the tight inventories as helping to drive up home prices. Inventories were at their lowest supply since May 2005, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

"The greatest concern in the market is the inventory situation," says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR. "Even if we see an increase in the spring and summer, if home sales hold at the [current] level or even a 5- to 6-month supply, price increases are guaranteed. We don't want to see rapid appreciation in prices faster than income."

CNBC reporter Diana Olick notes that “healthy housing market gains are historically driven by increasing employment and income, not by lack of supply; the latter leads to price bubbles.”

But another part driving recent gains are the flood of investors in some markets. Investors are cashing in on once hard-hit markets by the foreclosure crisis, like in California, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. Many of these investors are hedge funds turning single-family homes into rentals, but as prices increase they may be inclined to take their profits sooner rather than later, Olick writes.

“What we had thought were safer, long term buys, may now turn into flips of the last decade,” Olick writes. “The question will be if there are enough non-investor buyers out there to support those sales?”

But the price gains may be sustainable, some say. Consumer confidence is increasing, employment is improving, and price gains may soon allow more home owners who are seeing equity once again trade-up, Olick writes.

Source: “Housing Market Already Shows Signs of New Bubble,” CNBC.com (Feb. 5, 2013) and “New Housing Fears: Home Prices Are Rising Too Fast,” CNBC.com (Jan. 22, 2013)

Home Remodeling Pickup to Trigger Higher Sales Prices

After years of sluggish growth, home remodeling is rebounding and more home owners are tackling long-delayed house projects to spruce up their homes.

The growth in remodeling is coming at a time when more home owners are once again seeing equity in their homes as the overall housing market picks up. “Home improvements can further boost home values and help sustain both the housing recovery and economic growth,” Realty Times reports.

Spending on home improvement projects rose 9 percent in 2012 — the first increase since 2007, according to a study by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University.

"With the U.S. economy and housing market now recovering, investment in the nation's housing inventory is also picking up,” according to the JCH report. “Lenders and new owners are rehabilitating millions of foreclosed properties. Older home owners are retrofitting their homes to accommodate their future needs... And with the huge echo-boom population moving into the home buying market over the coming decade, the remodeling industry can look to an even more promising future.”

The National Association of the Remodeling Industry expects growth to continue in home remodeling, particularly as more clients feel more stable in their finances and employment situations.

Source: “Home Improvement Growth Latches onto Housing Recovery,” RealtyTimes (Feb. 5, 2013)