Consumer confidence in Nov. hits 5-month high
Economists watch confidence closely because consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity and is critical to a strong rebound. It takes a reading of 90 to indicate a healthy economy.
Value in Home Ownership....
Is there value in owning a home? The recently released 2010 National Association of REALTORS® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers brings us some promising results. Today homeowners are living in their homes longer, and after several years of price declines, are seeing rises in home equity gains.
It was only earlier this decade that so many buyers jumped on the investment bandwagon. They bought and sold within incredibly short time frames, and walked away with profits. But as the booms busted, many sellers found they had bought at the top of the market and as prices corrected, they lost more than just dollars. Foreclosure rates skyrocketed. Historically, however, homeownership is a long term investment, and one that brings many rewards.
"Sellers who purchased at the top of the market and had to sell in a short time frame were hurt by the price correction, but the vast majority who are able to stay for a normal period of home ownership generally built enough equity to make a trade-up purchase," NAR 2010 President Vicki Cox Golder said. "Despite swings in the housing market in recent years, the fact is most long-term owners see healthy gains in the value of their property."
Golder also says the pattern of home buyers taking a long-term view has solidified over the past few years. "This underscores two simple facts – home ownership encourages stability, and the longer you own, the better your investment."
Current market and economic conditions have created a shift from the house flipping ways of the boom. "The primary exception is for experienced investors, many of whom pay cash and are making renovations or improvements after a careful study of properties, neighborhoods and market demand," Golder explained. "The house flipping and quick gains which occurred during the boom period were abnormal, driven by risky, easy-money financing that should never have been allowed in the market."
American are still buying, however. And surveys have found there are particular reasons behind these purchases. These include the desire to own a home, the desire for a larger home, a change in family situation and taking advantage of the home buyer tax credit, a job-related move, and then the current supply of affordable homes.
And once they buy, homeowners are staying put longer. A typical seller has been in their home for 8 years, but the survey reveals first-time buyers are planning to stay for 10 years, and repeat buyers for 15 years.
Even with several years of price declines, the typical seller who purchased a home eight years ago experienced a median equity gain of $33,000, a 24 percent increase, while sellers who were in their homes for 11 to 15 years saw a median gain of 40 percent. So, once again buying for the long-term is steering its way back into value.
It was only earlier this decade that so many buyers jumped on the investment bandwagon. They bought and sold within incredibly short time frames, and walked away with profits. But as the booms busted, many sellers found they had bought at the top of the market and as prices corrected, they lost more than just dollars. Foreclosure rates skyrocketed. Historically, however, homeownership is a long term investment, and one that brings many rewards.
"Sellers who purchased at the top of the market and had to sell in a short time frame were hurt by the price correction, but the vast majority who are able to stay for a normal period of home ownership generally built enough equity to make a trade-up purchase," NAR 2010 President Vicki Cox Golder said. "Despite swings in the housing market in recent years, the fact is most long-term owners see healthy gains in the value of their property."
Golder also says the pattern of home buyers taking a long-term view has solidified over the past few years. "This underscores two simple facts – home ownership encourages stability, and the longer you own, the better your investment."
Current market and economic conditions have created a shift from the house flipping ways of the boom. "The primary exception is for experienced investors, many of whom pay cash and are making renovations or improvements after a careful study of properties, neighborhoods and market demand," Golder explained. "The house flipping and quick gains which occurred during the boom period were abnormal, driven by risky, easy-money financing that should never have been allowed in the market."
American are still buying, however. And surveys have found there are particular reasons behind these purchases. These include the desire to own a home, the desire for a larger home, a change in family situation and taking advantage of the home buyer tax credit, a job-related move, and then the current supply of affordable homes.
And once they buy, homeowners are staying put longer. A typical seller has been in their home for 8 years, but the survey reveals first-time buyers are planning to stay for 10 years, and repeat buyers for 15 years.
Even with several years of price declines, the typical seller who purchased a home eight years ago experienced a median equity gain of $33,000, a 24 percent increase, while sellers who were in their homes for 11 to 15 years saw a median gain of 40 percent. So, once again buying for the long-term is steering its way back into value.
Housing Remains Highly Affordable for Seventh Consecutive Quarter
Housing affordability remained near its highest level nationwide for the seventh consecutive quarter as interest rates dipped below 5 percent for the first time since the series was first compiled nearly two decades ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) just released.
The HOI indicated that 72.1 percent of all new and existing homes sold in the third quarter of 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,400. The index for the third quarter almost equaled the record-high 72.5 percent set during the first quarter of 2009 and marked the seventh consecutive quarter that the index rose above 70 percent. Until 2009, the HOI rarely topped 65 percent and never reached 70 percent.
"With interest rates remaining at historically low levels, and house prices starting to stabilize, homeownership is within reach of more households than it has been for almost 20 years," said NAHB Chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. "While these favorable conditions are beginning to draw home buyers back into the market, builders continue to have major problems in obtaining credit for new-home construction, and this obstacle must be overcome if builders are to respond to improving demand moving forward."
Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind., was the most affordable major housing market in the country, regaining the top ranking it held for nearly five years after being edged out by Syracuse, N.Y., last quarter. In Indianapolis, 93.3 percent of all homes sold were affordable to households earning the area's median family income of $68,700.
Also near the top of the list of the most affordable major metro housing markets were Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.; Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.; and Dayton, Ohio, and Wichita, Kan.
Among smaller housing markets, the most affordable was Kokomo, Ind., where 96.1 percent of homes sold during the third quarter of 2010 were affordable to families earning a median-income of $61,400. Other smaller housing markets near the top of the index included Mansfield, Ohio; Lima, Ohio; Monroe, Mich.; and Bay City, Mich., respectively.
New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J., continued to lead the nation as the least affordable major housing market during the third quarter of 2010. In New York, 22.6 percent of all homes sold during the quarter were affordable to those earning the area's median income of $65,600. This was the 10th consecutive quarter that the New York metropolitan division has occupied this position.
The other major metro areas near the bottom of the affordability scale included San Francisco; Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.; Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.; and Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif., respectively.
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, Calif. was the least affordable of the smaller metro housing markets in the country during the third quarter. Other small metro areas ranking near the bottom included San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, Calif.; Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, Calif.; Ocean City, N.J; and Napa, Calif.
The HOI indicated that 72.1 percent of all new and existing homes sold in the third quarter of 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,400. The index for the third quarter almost equaled the record-high 72.5 percent set during the first quarter of 2009 and marked the seventh consecutive quarter that the index rose above 70 percent. Until 2009, the HOI rarely topped 65 percent and never reached 70 percent.
"With interest rates remaining at historically low levels, and house prices starting to stabilize, homeownership is within reach of more households than it has been for almost 20 years," said NAHB Chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. "While these favorable conditions are beginning to draw home buyers back into the market, builders continue to have major problems in obtaining credit for new-home construction, and this obstacle must be overcome if builders are to respond to improving demand moving forward."
Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind., was the most affordable major housing market in the country, regaining the top ranking it held for nearly five years after being edged out by Syracuse, N.Y., last quarter. In Indianapolis, 93.3 percent of all homes sold were affordable to households earning the area's median family income of $68,700.
Also near the top of the list of the most affordable major metro housing markets were Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.; Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.; and Dayton, Ohio, and Wichita, Kan.
Among smaller housing markets, the most affordable was Kokomo, Ind., where 96.1 percent of homes sold during the third quarter of 2010 were affordable to families earning a median-income of $61,400. Other smaller housing markets near the top of the index included Mansfield, Ohio; Lima, Ohio; Monroe, Mich.; and Bay City, Mich., respectively.
New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J., continued to lead the nation as the least affordable major housing market during the third quarter of 2010. In New York, 22.6 percent of all homes sold during the quarter were affordable to those earning the area's median income of $65,600. This was the 10th consecutive quarter that the New York metropolitan division has occupied this position.
The other major metro areas near the bottom of the affordability scale included San Francisco; Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.; Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.; and Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif., respectively.
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, Calif. was the least affordable of the smaller metro housing markets in the country during the third quarter. Other small metro areas ranking near the bottom included San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, Calif.; Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, Calif.; Ocean City, N.J; and Napa, Calif.
Mortgage Rates Spike Quarter Percent
Mortgage Rates Spike Quarter Percent
by Ed Ferrara
30 year fixed mortgage rates have risen a quarter point this week to 4.25% on plummeting mortgage-backed securities prices. MBS prices drive mortgage rates in the opposite direction. Conventional 15 year fixed interest rates are also up a quarter of a percent and are at 3.75% currently for well-qualified borrowers who pay a standard .07 to 1 point origination. Both fixed mortgage rates are up substantially from last week and at an immediate risk to rise further.
FHA loan rates move with conforming mortgage rates and are also up this week. Today's 30 year fixed FHA loan rate is at 4.125%, up from 4%. Although the same note rate is available on an FHA 30 year fixed mortgage as a conforming 30 year fixed loan, MI and other fees charged by the Federal Housing Administration make APR higher on an FHA mortgage.
Jumbo mortgage rates are unchanged. The current jumbo 30 year fixed rate is 4.875%
Wells Fargo, the nation's number one originator by volume, adjusted their advertised 30 year fixed rate from 4.25% to 4.625% with an APR of 4.812.
FreeRateUpdate.com surveys wholesale and direct lenders' rate sheets to determine the most accurate mortgage interest rates available to well-qualified consumers who pay an industry standard .07 to 1 point origination. These rates are commonly referred to as "par rates" by mortgage loan officers.
SB 931 (eff. Jan. 1, 2011)
Discharge of balance of loan indebtedness after a short sale for residential 1-4 real property by holder of a first deed of trust.
This new law prohibits a lender holding a first deed of trust (purchase money or refinance) for a dwelling of 1-4 units to demand a deficiency judgment (unpaid balance due on the loan) from the trustor or mortgagor (owner) who sells the dwelling for less than the remaining amount of the indebtedness due at the time of the short sale to
which the lender has consented in writing.
However, if the owner commits either fraud with respect to the short sale, or waste with respect to the secured real property, then the lender may seek damages and use existing rights and remedies against the owner or any third party for fraud or waste.
Note that this law doesn't apply if the trustor or mortgagor is a corporation or political sudivision of the state.
Adds Section 580e to the Code of Civil Procedure.
This new law prohibits a lender holding a first deed of trust (purchase money or refinance) for a dwelling of 1-4 units to demand a deficiency judgment (unpaid balance due on the loan) from the trustor or mortgagor (owner) who sells the dwelling for less than the remaining amount of the indebtedness due at the time of the short sale to
which the lender has consented in writing.
However, if the owner commits either fraud with respect to the short sale, or waste with respect to the secured real property, then the lender may seek damages and use existing rights and remedies against the owner or any third party for fraud or waste.
Note that this law doesn't apply if the trustor or mortgagor is a corporation or political sudivision of the state.
Adds Section 580e to the Code of Civil Procedure.
Are Foreclosures A Real Deal?
Foreclosures make up a large segment of the housing market at this time, accounting for around 19% of total sales. This percentage is much higher in areas that went from boom to boost, such as in the states of Florida, California, and Arizona. According to Realtytrac.com, 1 in every 371 housing units received a foreclosure filing in September.
The question is posed. Does buying a foreclosed property save you money?
A market report from Zillow.com gave this example. "In the San Francisco market, where foreclosure re-sales made up 60% of transactions in December 2008, the median sale price for foreclosures was just 47% of the median sale price for non-foreclosures." Savings range widely depending on the area where you are buying, but Zillow.com reports that "foreclosures sell for approximately 28% less than non-foreclosures after controlling for differences in individual houses."
If you are looking to make an investment, however, you need to consider the market in which you are buying a foreclosure. A weak and ailing market could mean values will continue to fall. Buyers may be scarce. This is not an ideal environment for an investment.
Other issues must be taken into consideration, as well. The process of buying a foreclosure can take weeks longer than traditional negotiations. This is simply the nature of the beast. A foreclosure is a legal process. A foreclosure also means you must buy title insurance. According to CBS money watch, "A title search will pick up errors before you sign the check and protect you if something was overlooked. In the unlikely event that a former owner returns to challenge the foreclosure, the insurance company will defend you."
Foreclosed houses also warrant very close home inspections. There have been horror stories of new owners finding cement poured down drains by the disgruntled evicted. Be sure to see the house for yourself before you sign on the dotted line. And have a licensed professional carefully examine the home.
Even if the property hasn't been purposefully vandalized, many foreclosures need extensive repairs. A home may simply have been neglected and older homes require updates and normal upkeep. Budget carefully as you assess how much work the property will require.
If you take all of these matters into consideration, a foreclosed property may be the ideal buy for you.
The question is posed. Does buying a foreclosed property save you money?
A market report from Zillow.com gave this example. "In the San Francisco market, where foreclosure re-sales made up 60% of transactions in December 2008, the median sale price for foreclosures was just 47% of the median sale price for non-foreclosures." Savings range widely depending on the area where you are buying, but Zillow.com reports that "foreclosures sell for approximately 28% less than non-foreclosures after controlling for differences in individual houses."
If you are looking to make an investment, however, you need to consider the market in which you are buying a foreclosure. A weak and ailing market could mean values will continue to fall. Buyers may be scarce. This is not an ideal environment for an investment.
Other issues must be taken into consideration, as well. The process of buying a foreclosure can take weeks longer than traditional negotiations. This is simply the nature of the beast. A foreclosure is a legal process. A foreclosure also means you must buy title insurance. According to CBS money watch, "A title search will pick up errors before you sign the check and protect you if something was overlooked. In the unlikely event that a former owner returns to challenge the foreclosure, the insurance company will defend you."
Foreclosed houses also warrant very close home inspections. There have been horror stories of new owners finding cement poured down drains by the disgruntled evicted. Be sure to see the house for yourself before you sign on the dotted line. And have a licensed professional carefully examine the home.
Even if the property hasn't been purposefully vandalized, many foreclosures need extensive repairs. A home may simply have been neglected and older homes require updates and normal upkeep. Budget carefully as you assess how much work the property will require.
If you take all of these matters into consideration, a foreclosed property may be the ideal buy for you.
Low Inflation Keeps Mortgage Rates Relatively Flat This Week
McLean, VA – Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), which found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate rose slightly for the third consecutive week. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rate eased back down a little while the 5-year and 1-year ARMs set another low.
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.24 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending November 4, 2010, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.23 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.98 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.63 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.66 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.39 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.41 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.35 percent. The 5-year ARM has not been lower since Freddie Mac started tracking it in January 2005.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.30 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.47 percent. The 1-year ARM sets another survey low this week.
Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, notes, "With little sign of inflation to push up long-term interest rates, fixed mortgage rates held relatively steady this week, while ARM rates hit new all-time record lows. The core price index for personal expenditures, a gauge closely followed by the Federal Reserve (Fed), rose 1.1 percent over the 12-months ending in September and represented the smallest increase since September 2001. In its November 3rd monetary policy committee statement, the Fed affirmed that measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate."
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.24 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending November 4, 2010, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.23 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.98 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.63 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.66 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.39 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.41 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.35 percent. The 5-year ARM has not been lower since Freddie Mac started tracking it in January 2005.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.30 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.47 percent. The 1-year ARM sets another survey low this week.
Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, notes, "With little sign of inflation to push up long-term interest rates, fixed mortgage rates held relatively steady this week, while ARM rates hit new all-time record lows. The core price index for personal expenditures, a gauge closely followed by the Federal Reserve (Fed), rose 1.1 percent over the 12-months ending in September and represented the smallest increase since September 2001. In its November 3rd monetary policy committee statement, the Fed affirmed that measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate."
First-Time Buyers Do's
If you are ready to buy your first house, congratulations! This is an exciting time that can bring you sweet rewards. It's also a time, however, full of questions. Here are a few do's and don'ts to get you started.
Before you shop, you must decide what type of home is best. Are you looking for a condo, with a strong sense of community, extra amenities, easy maintenance, and willing to pay a monthly HOA fee? Would you prefer a larger house in the suburbs, even if it means a longer commute? Are you looking for older charm or newer construction?
After you've decided this, write down a list of your wants and needs. This is a time to be honest with yourself. Rarely does a homebuyer get everything they "want" in a home. You will need to compromise. For example, you may need 3 bedrooms, but want a fenced back yard. If push comes to shove, you may have to forgo the fenced yard to get the bedrooms.
When you begin to shop, have a budget in mind. While prices are always negotiable, you don't want to waste your or a seller's time. Be realistic about a home's price. Let your real estate agent compile a list of homes to visit that fit your criteria, as well as your budget. As you make your way to and through the homes, be sure you don't judge a home until you've been through the entire place. There are homes that seriously lack curb appeal, but with a few cosmetic enhancements can be real showstoppers.
Pay close attention to what repairs the home may need. Don't get swept up by fantastic staging. Keep your list of criteria in mind the entire shopping process.
Once you have decided on a home, it is time to begin negotiations. Do not hesitate. Desirable homes don't sit on the market for long. Hesitation may translate into missing out on a property that you really love. That said, you must be confident with your decision. This is not a time to buy a house simply because you feel pressured.
Your agent will help you put in an offer. By researching area comparables (that's other homes that have sold or are selling in the area), they can come up with a reasonable amount to pay. How much are you willing to pay for this home? Set a top number in your mind and don't let emotion push you to buy past your budget. And leave room in your coffers for closing costs, a down payment, initial repairs, as well as a home inspection.
Home buying can be a stressful process, but keep the end goal in sight and you'll do great!
Before you shop, you must decide what type of home is best. Are you looking for a condo, with a strong sense of community, extra amenities, easy maintenance, and willing to pay a monthly HOA fee? Would you prefer a larger house in the suburbs, even if it means a longer commute? Are you looking for older charm or newer construction?
After you've decided this, write down a list of your wants and needs. This is a time to be honest with yourself. Rarely does a homebuyer get everything they "want" in a home. You will need to compromise. For example, you may need 3 bedrooms, but want a fenced back yard. If push comes to shove, you may have to forgo the fenced yard to get the bedrooms.
When you begin to shop, have a budget in mind. While prices are always negotiable, you don't want to waste your or a seller's time. Be realistic about a home's price. Let your real estate agent compile a list of homes to visit that fit your criteria, as well as your budget. As you make your way to and through the homes, be sure you don't judge a home until you've been through the entire place. There are homes that seriously lack curb appeal, but with a few cosmetic enhancements can be real showstoppers.
Pay close attention to what repairs the home may need. Don't get swept up by fantastic staging. Keep your list of criteria in mind the entire shopping process.
Once you have decided on a home, it is time to begin negotiations. Do not hesitate. Desirable homes don't sit on the market for long. Hesitation may translate into missing out on a property that you really love. That said, you must be confident with your decision. This is not a time to buy a house simply because you feel pressured.
Your agent will help you put in an offer. By researching area comparables (that's other homes that have sold or are selling in the area), they can come up with a reasonable amount to pay. How much are you willing to pay for this home? Set a top number in your mind and don't let emotion push you to buy past your budget. And leave room in your coffers for closing costs, a down payment, initial repairs, as well as a home inspection.
Home buying can be a stressful process, but keep the end goal in sight and you'll do great!
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