A key measure of consumer confidence climbed for a third straight month in May, a research group said Tuesday, with the outlook for the next few months spiking to pre-recession levels.
The Conference Board, a New York-based research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 63.3 in May, the highest level since March 2008, when it stood at 65.9. The index climbed from a downwardly revised 57.7 in April.
Economists were expecting the index to increase to 58.3, according to a Briefing.com consensus survey. The figure, which is based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households, is closely watched because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.
The Conference Board said the survey cutoff date was May 18, meaning that the data took into account such events as the "flash crash" of May 6 and the ongoing European debt crisis. It would not have included some of the events that have roiled markets in recent days, such as the tensions in Korea.
"Consumer confidence posted its third consecutive monthly gain, and although still weak by historical levels, appears to be gaining some traction," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board, in a statement. "Consumers apprehension about current business conditions and the job market continues to dissipate.
The overall index has been recovering slowly since reaching a record low of 25.3 in February 2009, but was still far from a reading above 90, which indicates the economy is stable, and 100 or above, which indicates strong growth.
The expectation index, which measures consumers' outlook over the next few months, rose to 85.3, the highest level since August 2007, when it came in at 89.2.
"The improvement has been fueled primarily by growing optimism about business and labor market conditions." Franco said.
The percentage of Americans expecting business conditions to pick up increased to 23.5% from 19.7% last month, and fewer expected circumstances to worsen.
The percentage of those expecting the job market to improve also edged higher to 20.4% from 17.7% the previous month. Last month, employers added the most jobs since March 2006, and economists expect payrolls to increase by 500,000 jobs this month, which would be the most since September 1997.
Those expecting a rise in their incomes improved modestly to 11.3% from 10.5%.
"The Consumer Confidence Index tends to reflect consumer impressions of the direction of the jobs market," said Jim Baird, partner and chief investment strategist for Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in a research note. "The recent marked improvement in the pace of job creation is clearly lifting spirits."
But as spooked investors remain fixated on debt problems in Europe and growing tensions in Korea, Baird said the market's recent turmoil "will undoubtedly weigh" on consumer sentiment.
"We do not expect discretionary spending to return to pre-recession levels for some time," Baird said. "Nonetheless, should we see continued improvement in the jobs market as anticipated in the months ahead, improving personal income should be supportive of spending growth."
30-Yr Fixed Mortgage Rates Dip for Conforming and FHA Loans
30-yr fixed mortgage rates dipped last week thanks to gains in mortgage-backed securities prices. MBS prices, which drive mortgage rates their opposite, were pushed up by investors seeking the safety of bonds.
The conforming 30-yr fixed rate is at 4.625%, down from 4.75% according to FreeRateUpdate.com research of wholesale lenders' rate sheets. This rate is available to well-qualified borrowers paying a standard .07 to 1 point origination. The conforming 15-yr fixed rate is at 4.125%, down from 4.25.
The conforming 5/1 ARM rate is down to 3.5. FHA mortgage rates have improved as well. The current FHA 30-yr fixed rate is at 4.5%, an 1/8 lower than the conforming 30-year fixed rate. Despite having similar rates and origination fees, FHA loans come with highers cost and APR due to MI, at 2.25% of the amount financed, and other FHA fees.
The current jumbo 30-yr fixed rate, for jumbo loans exceeding the jumbo conforming loan limit, is 5.5%, down from 5.625. It's speculated the jumbo mortgage market will thaw now that the first private sale of jumbo mortgage securities in over 2 years has taken place (Redwood Trust).
Today's Mortgage Rates - available to well-qualified consumers at a standard .07 to 1 point origination.
30-yr fixed-rate - 4.625%
15-yr fixed-rate - 4.250%
5/1 ARM rate - 3.500%
FHA 30-yr fixed-rate - 4.500%
FHA 15-yr fixed-rate - 4.500%
FHA 5/1 ARM rate - 3.500%
VA 30-yr fixed-rate - 4.750%
Jumbo 30-yr fixed-rate - 5.500%
Jumbo Conforming 30-yr fixed-rate - 4.875%
FreeRateUpdate.com researches over 2 dozen wholesale lenders' rate sheets for brokers daily to determine the most accurate rates available to well-qualified borrowers at a standard origination fee of about 1 point. These rates are commonly referred to as "par rates" by loan officers.
The conforming 30-yr fixed rate is at 4.625%, down from 4.75% according to FreeRateUpdate.com research of wholesale lenders' rate sheets. This rate is available to well-qualified borrowers paying a standard .07 to 1 point origination. The conforming 15-yr fixed rate is at 4.125%, down from 4.25.
The conforming 5/1 ARM rate is down to 3.5. FHA mortgage rates have improved as well. The current FHA 30-yr fixed rate is at 4.5%, an 1/8 lower than the conforming 30-year fixed rate. Despite having similar rates and origination fees, FHA loans come with highers cost and APR due to MI, at 2.25% of the amount financed, and other FHA fees.
The current jumbo 30-yr fixed rate, for jumbo loans exceeding the jumbo conforming loan limit, is 5.5%, down from 5.625. It's speculated the jumbo mortgage market will thaw now that the first private sale of jumbo mortgage securities in over 2 years has taken place (Redwood Trust).
Today's Mortgage Rates - available to well-qualified consumers at a standard .07 to 1 point origination.
30-yr fixed-rate - 4.625%
15-yr fixed-rate - 4.250%
5/1 ARM rate - 3.500%
FHA 30-yr fixed-rate - 4.500%
FHA 15-yr fixed-rate - 4.500%
FHA 5/1 ARM rate - 3.500%
VA 30-yr fixed-rate - 4.750%
Jumbo 30-yr fixed-rate - 5.500%
Jumbo Conforming 30-yr fixed-rate - 4.875%
FreeRateUpdate.com researches over 2 dozen wholesale lenders' rate sheets for brokers daily to determine the most accurate rates available to well-qualified borrowers at a standard origination fee of about 1 point. These rates are commonly referred to as "par rates" by loan officers.
More homeowners choose to default on loans
Choosing not to pay has consequences beyond damaged credit scores!
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- "Strategic defaults" are on the rise as more borrowers who are underwater on their home loans decide it's not worth it to stay current on their payments each month. That trend could have repercussions for the housing market, and for borrowers, in the future.
Strategic defaults are when borrowers who owe more on their homes than they're currently worth choose to stop paying their mortgage but continue to meet other financial obligations, according to a definition by Morgan Stanley in a research report on the topic.
The Morgan Stanley report estimates that 12% of mortgage defaults in February were strategic. Other reports estimate an even higher proportion of this type of loan default.
Growing social acceptance of this behavior could have ramifications not only for personal credit histories and the health of neighborhoods, but also for the future of mortgage lending, according to those studying the issue.
For one, there's a contagion effect: As more people watch their friends or neighbors choose to default, the more it becomes a viable option for homeowners who may otherwise wait years just to return to a positive equity position in their properties, said Sam Khater, senior economist for CoreLogic, a provider of consumer, financial and property information. The volume of foreclosures on the market today is also chipping away at the stigma that used to come with defaulting on a home loan.
"If you know someone who has defaulted strategically, you're more likely to declare you're willing to do it," said Luigi Zingales, professor of entrepreneurship and finance at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business.
In areas where home prices are severely depressed, social acceptance of this decision could lead to pockets "where strategic default becomes the norm, versus the exception," Zingales said.
But look even farther in the future, and the repercussions of substantial strategic defaults could have a larger-scale effect.
"If it really does become a legitimate problem, the implications are pretty dramatic for anyone that wants to buy a home in the future," said Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, an online marketplace of foreclosure properties. "The lenders would have to build this into their risk models with either larger down payments or higher interest rates."
Some owners 'mimic investors' Many agree the ranks of people taking this route are growing, but putting a number on the trend isn't as easy. To measure the number of people who are strategically defaulting on their mortgage obligations, you have to assess borrower intent.
"Take all the numbers with a grain of salt, because it's one of those topics which is really difficult to get a firm grasp on," Sharga said. "The projections are based on limited sample sizes, and [people are] doing projections that have a lot of implications on societal behavior and political policy."
Researchers believe that being underwater on a loan is a prerequisite to strategic default, and the more underwater you are, the likelier you are to consider defaulting -- even if you can afford to keep making payments.
"In our data, what we've noticed is at about 25% negative equity, the behavior of owners begins to mimic that of investors -- they're more ruthless and rational, they're looking at it from a cash-flow perspective," Khater said. "The default rate rises as the negative equity gets deeper and deeper."
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- "Strategic defaults" are on the rise as more borrowers who are underwater on their home loans decide it's not worth it to stay current on their payments each month. That trend could have repercussions for the housing market, and for borrowers, in the future.
Strategic defaults are when borrowers who owe more on their homes than they're currently worth choose to stop paying their mortgage but continue to meet other financial obligations, according to a definition by Morgan Stanley in a research report on the topic.
The Morgan Stanley report estimates that 12% of mortgage defaults in February were strategic. Other reports estimate an even higher proportion of this type of loan default.
Growing social acceptance of this behavior could have ramifications not only for personal credit histories and the health of neighborhoods, but also for the future of mortgage lending, according to those studying the issue.
For one, there's a contagion effect: As more people watch their friends or neighbors choose to default, the more it becomes a viable option for homeowners who may otherwise wait years just to return to a positive equity position in their properties, said Sam Khater, senior economist for CoreLogic, a provider of consumer, financial and property information. The volume of foreclosures on the market today is also chipping away at the stigma that used to come with defaulting on a home loan.
"If you know someone who has defaulted strategically, you're more likely to declare you're willing to do it," said Luigi Zingales, professor of entrepreneurship and finance at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business.
In areas where home prices are severely depressed, social acceptance of this decision could lead to pockets "where strategic default becomes the norm, versus the exception," Zingales said.
But look even farther in the future, and the repercussions of substantial strategic defaults could have a larger-scale effect.
"If it really does become a legitimate problem, the implications are pretty dramatic for anyone that wants to buy a home in the future," said Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, an online marketplace of foreclosure properties. "The lenders would have to build this into their risk models with either larger down payments or higher interest rates."
Some owners 'mimic investors' Many agree the ranks of people taking this route are growing, but putting a number on the trend isn't as easy. To measure the number of people who are strategically defaulting on their mortgage obligations, you have to assess borrower intent.
"Take all the numbers with a grain of salt, because it's one of those topics which is really difficult to get a firm grasp on," Sharga said. "The projections are based on limited sample sizes, and [people are] doing projections that have a lot of implications on societal behavior and political policy."
Researchers believe that being underwater on a loan is a prerequisite to strategic default, and the more underwater you are, the likelier you are to consider defaulting -- even if you can afford to keep making payments.
"In our data, what we've noticed is at about 25% negative equity, the behavior of owners begins to mimic that of investors -- they're more ruthless and rational, they're looking at it from a cash-flow perspective," Khater said. "The default rate rises as the negative equity gets deeper and deeper."
Debt Management for Homeownership
Learning to manage your finances is a great first step towards owning the home of your dreams. Whether this is your first time to buy, or you are looking to move-up, managing your debt is important.
Among the most important of the debt management qualities is holding yourself accountable. What does this mean, exactly? Being accountable means taking an honest look at your budget and your spending. The $5 latte every morning on the way to work, the cash withdrawals spent without record, or even the extra martini with dinner adds up to money spent, not saved.
An easy was to increase your own accountability is to use a debit card and online banking for all of your purchases. Online banking is offered by nearly every banking institution, and allows you to access your account anytime, anywhere. Now you'll know if you are spending $100 a month on little extras.
The next step in accountability is to create a monthly budget. On a sheet of paper write down each of your monthly expenses. These might include: rent or house payment, car payments, insurance, phone bills, cable and internet, alimony, child support, and student loans. It's time to take a hard look at what you think you are spending versus what your real expenditures are. If you can, don't forget to add up how much you spend on all the extras, such as nights out, entertainment, books, hair cuts, and household products.
If you'd prefer to use an online calculator to show you a monthly budget, consider using financial guru Suze Orman's tools at Suzeorman.com.
Next, begin to cut and adjust your spending. In this economy, everyone can take note of this tip, even if they don't have debts. Where can you cut? Experts recommend limiting your trips for eating out.
According to Christine Bockelman with Smartmoney.com, "Americans now spend roughly half their food budget dining out, and restaurants expect revenue of more than $537 billion in 2007. That's a 67 percent increase since 1997." How much is the food really marked up? Bockelman notes, "At a fine-dining restaurant, the average cost of food is 38 to 42 percent of the menu price."
Make your morning coffee at home and take it in a travel mug to work. Rent movies, instead of paying $10 a ticket for each member of the family to go see a "new to the theater" attraction. If you have the money to spend and splurge, it's fine. That's what makes our economy go round, but spending what you don't have, and adding to your already mounting debt, is no way to work your way towards homeownership.
There is a difference between wants and needs, and this is a time to re-evaluate how you define them.
Once you have freed up some cash, you can start working on paying down debts and building up savings.
It is recommended you develop a savings schedule. After you've set your monthly budget, you will know how much can be earmarked for savings each paycheck. If you can't trust yourself to make the transfer yourself, then set up automatic deposits out of your account.
A separate savings consideration is an emergency fund. Review your budget and see how much you would truly need each month to get by. Multiply that number by 8, because that is the number of months you should be prepared to survive without a job. If you need $2,500 a month to pay all of your bills, then should have $20,000 in savings. Most Americans don't have a fraction of that, part of the reason for the foreclosure crisis running rampant across the nation.
The latest statistics indicate that most Americans have a personal savings rate of less than 5 percent, but owe $8,000 in credit card debt (MSN Money).
When it comes to credit cards, don't. It's as simple as that. If you can, avoid carrying a balance on credit card. We live in a society of margins, with 43 percent of American living beyond their means, but there is something quite liberating about living on your income and no more. If you must use a credit card to carry a balance, or if you already owe, then consider paying more than the minimum each month. Not only does a minimum payment set you up for possible interest rate and fee increases, it costs a whole lot more in the long run.
Consider this equation. If you owe $10,000 on a card with an 18 percent interest rate (fairly normal), and you make minium payments, according to bankrate.com, it will take you 342 months, that's 28 years, to be rid of your debt. In that time, you will pay $14,423.30 in interest!
On the other hand, at just an extra $25 dollars a month, or a fixed monthly payment of $275, it would take you 53 months, or 4 years, to be rid of your debt. In that time, you will pay $4,563.28 in interest. This is a deal compared to the minimum payment equation.
A common question that credit card users ask, "Should I close the account when I have paid off the card?" The answer is simple. If you owe any money on open cards, then no. This will negatively affect your FICO score. This is because the ratio of credit available to credit used will shrink. If you don't owe any money on any cards, then closing cards should have no impact on your FICO score.
So, take a moment to consider your finances, and see if you really are living within your means. If not, what can you do to adjust your spending and savings to get there?
Among the most important of the debt management qualities is holding yourself accountable. What does this mean, exactly? Being accountable means taking an honest look at your budget and your spending. The $5 latte every morning on the way to work, the cash withdrawals spent without record, or even the extra martini with dinner adds up to money spent, not saved.
An easy was to increase your own accountability is to use a debit card and online banking for all of your purchases. Online banking is offered by nearly every banking institution, and allows you to access your account anytime, anywhere. Now you'll know if you are spending $100 a month on little extras.
The next step in accountability is to create a monthly budget. On a sheet of paper write down each of your monthly expenses. These might include: rent or house payment, car payments, insurance, phone bills, cable and internet, alimony, child support, and student loans. It's time to take a hard look at what you think you are spending versus what your real expenditures are. If you can, don't forget to add up how much you spend on all the extras, such as nights out, entertainment, books, hair cuts, and household products.
If you'd prefer to use an online calculator to show you a monthly budget, consider using financial guru Suze Orman's tools at Suzeorman.com.
Next, begin to cut and adjust your spending. In this economy, everyone can take note of this tip, even if they don't have debts. Where can you cut? Experts recommend limiting your trips for eating out.
According to Christine Bockelman with Smartmoney.com, "Americans now spend roughly half their food budget dining out, and restaurants expect revenue of more than $537 billion in 2007. That's a 67 percent increase since 1997." How much is the food really marked up? Bockelman notes, "At a fine-dining restaurant, the average cost of food is 38 to 42 percent of the menu price."
Make your morning coffee at home and take it in a travel mug to work. Rent movies, instead of paying $10 a ticket for each member of the family to go see a "new to the theater" attraction. If you have the money to spend and splurge, it's fine. That's what makes our economy go round, but spending what you don't have, and adding to your already mounting debt, is no way to work your way towards homeownership.
There is a difference between wants and needs, and this is a time to re-evaluate how you define them.
Once you have freed up some cash, you can start working on paying down debts and building up savings.
It is recommended you develop a savings schedule. After you've set your monthly budget, you will know how much can be earmarked for savings each paycheck. If you can't trust yourself to make the transfer yourself, then set up automatic deposits out of your account.
A separate savings consideration is an emergency fund. Review your budget and see how much you would truly need each month to get by. Multiply that number by 8, because that is the number of months you should be prepared to survive without a job. If you need $2,500 a month to pay all of your bills, then should have $20,000 in savings. Most Americans don't have a fraction of that, part of the reason for the foreclosure crisis running rampant across the nation.
The latest statistics indicate that most Americans have a personal savings rate of less than 5 percent, but owe $8,000 in credit card debt (MSN Money).
When it comes to credit cards, don't. It's as simple as that. If you can, avoid carrying a balance on credit card. We live in a society of margins, with 43 percent of American living beyond their means, but there is something quite liberating about living on your income and no more. If you must use a credit card to carry a balance, or if you already owe, then consider paying more than the minimum each month. Not only does a minimum payment set you up for possible interest rate and fee increases, it costs a whole lot more in the long run.
Consider this equation. If you owe $10,000 on a card with an 18 percent interest rate (fairly normal), and you make minium payments, according to bankrate.com, it will take you 342 months, that's 28 years, to be rid of your debt. In that time, you will pay $14,423.30 in interest!
On the other hand, at just an extra $25 dollars a month, or a fixed monthly payment of $275, it would take you 53 months, or 4 years, to be rid of your debt. In that time, you will pay $4,563.28 in interest. This is a deal compared to the minimum payment equation.
A common question that credit card users ask, "Should I close the account when I have paid off the card?" The answer is simple. If you owe any money on open cards, then no. This will negatively affect your FICO score. This is because the ratio of credit available to credit used will shrink. If you don't owe any money on any cards, then closing cards should have no impact on your FICO score.
So, take a moment to consider your finances, and see if you really are living within your means. If not, what can you do to adjust your spending and savings to get there?
Real Estate Outlook: The Federal Reserve
What should we make of the latest reports on rising home sales and the Federal Reserve's promise to keep interest rates low indefinitely?
Should we worry that at least some of the sales are being pushed forward by the expiring tax credits? Though that may be the case, take a minute and join the economists at the Fed to see the bigger picture. What's going on in the economy nationwide?
In its "open markets committee" statement issued last week, the Fed pointed to the underlying positives: Overall national "economic activity continues to strengthen," it said, and "the labor market is beginning to improve." Of course there are challenges to keeping the rebound rolling along, but the direction for the year as a whole is good.
The Fed's statement provides useful context for some of the encouraging numbers being racked up in the housing market. For example:
The Commerce Department reported last week that new home sales in March were up by 27 percent -- hitting their highest levels since July of 2009. Even the median sale price was up by 4.3 percent compared with the same month the year before.
Home resales in some major markets were up impressively as well, such as in Chicago, where sales jumped by 50 percent last month over the year before, and were 48 percent higher than they were in February. Florida sales were 37 percent higher in March than February and were up by 24 percent compared with the year before. Las Vegas saw its highest sales totals in four years.
Not surprisingly, applications for new mortgages to purchase homes have been rising strongly as well. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 12 percent surge in purchase applications for the latest week. No question the expiring tax credits requiring signed contracts by April 30 played a role in that number.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Business Economics, a group that represents corporate and government economists, just came out with an upbeat forecast as well. Three-quarters of the economists surveyed expect growth in the national gross domestic product (GDP) of two percent or higher through the balance of the year.
Twenty two percent of the private companies polled reported their payrolls and employee numbers increased in March, up significantly from the month before.
So the bottom line to keep in mind about the latest statistics and projections is this: The underlying economic factors, growth in jobs, growth in output, rising consumer expenditures and confidence, are the critical numbers to watch for future housing activity.
And at the moment, the consensus is that they look pretty promising
Should we worry that at least some of the sales are being pushed forward by the expiring tax credits? Though that may be the case, take a minute and join the economists at the Fed to see the bigger picture. What's going on in the economy nationwide?
In its "open markets committee" statement issued last week, the Fed pointed to the underlying positives: Overall national "economic activity continues to strengthen," it said, and "the labor market is beginning to improve." Of course there are challenges to keeping the rebound rolling along, but the direction for the year as a whole is good.
The Fed's statement provides useful context for some of the encouraging numbers being racked up in the housing market. For example:
The Commerce Department reported last week that new home sales in March were up by 27 percent -- hitting their highest levels since July of 2009. Even the median sale price was up by 4.3 percent compared with the same month the year before.
Home resales in some major markets were up impressively as well, such as in Chicago, where sales jumped by 50 percent last month over the year before, and were 48 percent higher than they were in February. Florida sales were 37 percent higher in March than February and were up by 24 percent compared with the year before. Las Vegas saw its highest sales totals in four years.
Not surprisingly, applications for new mortgages to purchase homes have been rising strongly as well. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 12 percent surge in purchase applications for the latest week. No question the expiring tax credits requiring signed contracts by April 30 played a role in that number.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Business Economics, a group that represents corporate and government economists, just came out with an upbeat forecast as well. Three-quarters of the economists surveyed expect growth in the national gross domestic product (GDP) of two percent or higher through the balance of the year.
Twenty two percent of the private companies polled reported their payrolls and employee numbers increased in March, up significantly from the month before.
So the bottom line to keep in mind about the latest statistics and projections is this: The underlying economic factors, growth in jobs, growth in output, rising consumer expenditures and confidence, are the critical numbers to watch for future housing activity.
And at the moment, the consensus is that they look pretty promising
Risk wanes for real estate price declines - PMI sees improvements in nearly all markets
The risk of home-price declines decreased in 93 percent of the 384 markets tracked at the end of last year by analysts with PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., although half still showed an elevated or high risk of depreciation.
Overall risk of price declines "decreased dramatically" during the final three months of 2009, PMI said, largely because of improvements in affordability and declining foreclosure starts. Affordability was helped by falling home prices, lower mortgage rates, and increasing personal income.
"House prices have dropped sharply relative to incomes in most areas suggesting that prices have fully, or more than fully, adjusted for their unsustainable increases during the housing boom," PMI Chief Economist David Berson said in a statement accompanying the report.
PMI expects risk scores to continue falling, as unemployment rates should show improvement in the first quarter of 2010 and going forward, which should prove to be "an important new force in reducing the risk of lower prices."
Risky mortgage lending practices and loan products decreased sharply in 2009 "and are hardly present at all in 2010 lending," the report said.
Despite that, PMI's Risk Index -- which takes into account factors including unemployment, foreclosures and inventory levels -- still showed a 90 percent or greater chance of further price declines during the next two years in every market tracked in Florida and Nevada.
Most markets in the other "sand states" hit hard during the downturn, California and Arizona, were at high risk for price declines. All but three of 28 markets tracked in California showed improvement during the fourth quarter of 2009, however.
Seven of the 10 markets with the highest risk scores were in Florida: Naples, Cape Coral, Lakeland, Palm Coast, Miami, Port St. Lucie and Fort Lauderdale. Also making the top 10 riskiest markets list were Kingman, Ariz.; Riverside, Calif.; and Las Vegas.
Six of the 10 least risky markets were in North Dakota and Iowa: Grand Forks, Fargo and Bismark N.D.; and Iowa City, Ames and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Also on the 10 least risky markets list were Killeen, Texas; Fayetteville N.C.; Morgantown, W.V.; and Texarkana, Ark.
Copyright 2010 Inman News
Overall risk of price declines "decreased dramatically" during the final three months of 2009, PMI said, largely because of improvements in affordability and declining foreclosure starts. Affordability was helped by falling home prices, lower mortgage rates, and increasing personal income.
"House prices have dropped sharply relative to incomes in most areas suggesting that prices have fully, or more than fully, adjusted for their unsustainable increases during the housing boom," PMI Chief Economist David Berson said in a statement accompanying the report.
PMI expects risk scores to continue falling, as unemployment rates should show improvement in the first quarter of 2010 and going forward, which should prove to be "an important new force in reducing the risk of lower prices."
Risky mortgage lending practices and loan products decreased sharply in 2009 "and are hardly present at all in 2010 lending," the report said.
Despite that, PMI's Risk Index -- which takes into account factors including unemployment, foreclosures and inventory levels -- still showed a 90 percent or greater chance of further price declines during the next two years in every market tracked in Florida and Nevada.
Most markets in the other "sand states" hit hard during the downturn, California and Arizona, were at high risk for price declines. All but three of 28 markets tracked in California showed improvement during the fourth quarter of 2009, however.
Seven of the 10 markets with the highest risk scores were in Florida: Naples, Cape Coral, Lakeland, Palm Coast, Miami, Port St. Lucie and Fort Lauderdale. Also making the top 10 riskiest markets list were Kingman, Ariz.; Riverside, Calif.; and Las Vegas.
Six of the 10 least risky markets were in North Dakota and Iowa: Grand Forks, Fargo and Bismark N.D.; and Iowa City, Ames and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Also on the 10 least risky markets list were Killeen, Texas; Fayetteville N.C.; Morgantown, W.V.; and Texarkana, Ark.
Copyright 2010 Inman News
Slow Payments...How will this effect my Credit?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- If you're delinquent on your mortgage, your credit score will suffer. Everyone knows that. The question is, by how much?
Until recently, those answers were hard to come by. Credit bureaus were uncommunicative about expressing, in points, just how much impact different foreclosure types of mortgage delinquencies have on scores.
Recently, Fair Isaac, which developed FICO scores, pulled back the curtain a bit, revealing some estimates of point-score declines following mortgage delinquency problems.
Here are the average hit your credit will take:
30 days late: 40 - 110 points
90 days late: 70 - 135 pointsForeclosure,
short sale or deed-in-lieu: 85 - 160
Bankruptcy: 130 - 240
Until recently, those answers were hard to come by. Credit bureaus were uncommunicative about expressing, in points, just how much impact different foreclosure types of mortgage delinquencies have on scores.
Recently, Fair Isaac, which developed FICO scores, pulled back the curtain a bit, revealing some estimates of point-score declines following mortgage delinquency problems.
Here are the average hit your credit will take:
30 days late: 40 - 110 points
90 days late: 70 - 135 pointsForeclosure,
short sale or deed-in-lieu: 85 - 160
Bankruptcy: 130 - 240
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